Arbitrage Space Narrows with Weak Buying Interest, but Market Offers Remain Firm [SMM Yangshan Spot Copper]

January 15, 2025: Today's warehouse warrant price was $71-81/mt, QP January, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day; B/L price was $59-73/mt, QP February, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $9-23/mt, QP February, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. The quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late January and early February.

During the day, the SHFE/LME price ratio for the SHFE copper 2502 contract was around -500 yuan/mt. LME copper 3M-Feb was at C$66.55/mt, and the January 2501 to February 2502 spread was around C$54/mt. Recently, the arbitrage space between markets and exchange rate differences has narrowed compared to earlier, with market buying interest gradually weakening. Suppliers actively sold late-month cargoes, but overall premiums remained high due to low inventory levels.

Currently, the transaction price for pyro high-quality copper warehouse warrants was $81/mt, mainstream pyro copper was $71/mt, and wet-process copper quotations were scarce. High-quality copper B/L was $73/mt, mainstream pyro copper was around $66/mt, and wet-process copper was $59/mt. CIF B/L EQ copper was $9-23/mt, with an average price of $16/mt.